Republican Vice-Presidential Odds

Now that we’re past the 4^th of July holiday and new campaign manager Steve Schmidt has begun to retool (no pun intended) the McCain campaign, let’s have a look at the odds for the Republican Vice-Presidential candidates. The task is admittedly more difficult than handicapping the Democratic candidates as McCain’s pick will most assuredly be made in relation to whom Obama chooses. But I will fecklessly forge ahead with the caveat that I reserve my right to refine my picks after we learn the Democratic VP.

For the general criteria that is utilized to select a VP, please read my post on the Democratic VP odds, as I see no need to rehash what I wrote there. However, there are some issues specific to Senator McCain and this election that are worth elucidating.

It is generally held that the quality of a VP will not ultimately effect a voter’s decision on whether or not to vote for that candidate (see: Quayle, Dan). And I agree with that wisdom to a certain degree. But I would suggest that the stakes for John McCain are significantly higher than for most Presidential candidates. McCain certainly can’t win the election with any conceivable choice for VP, that much is certain. With the wrong choice, he could most assuredly sink his ship for good. So what are some requirements for McCain’s VP:

Will the VP be ready to assume the role of President on day one? Due to John McCain’s advanced age, voters will take a closer look at the actual qualifications of his VP. Is this person truly ready to lead our nation should tragedy befall the President? I mean, John McCain released 1,173 pages of his medical history, the War and Peace of medical records. There is some legitimate ground for concern there. Candidates that will need to learn “executive decision-making” on the job are going to be suspect in the eyes of voters.

Is the VP seen as a “true conservative” by the conservative base? It may appear that I am countermanding my previous argument that the best Vice-Presidents mirror the image of the candidate, but I’m actually not. McCain’s image as a “maverick” needs to be maintained at all costs as it is the only reason that this election should not yet be considered a fait accompli for Barack Obama. However, he also needs the conservative base to come out for him or he doesn’t stand a chance. The minefield that McCain must navigate is that he needs a VP with solid conservative credentials who will also be seen as non-conventional. I think a Lindsey Graham type would be the kiss of death for his campaign.  A “non-conventional conservative” may sound like an oxymoron, but McCain could bridge that gap by selecting a female or minority VP, someone like a Sarah Palin or Bobby Jindal. The prospect of an Obama Presidency coupled with a large – perhaps evens filibuster proof – Democratic majority in the House and Senate is a truly terrifying notion for Conservatives. They want to come home; they just need a tacit signal from John McCain that although he may have to run hard from the legacy of George W. Bush, he’s going to be a reliable conservative on such matters as Supreme Court appointees and taxes. A reliably conservative VP would go a long way towards appeasing the conservative base. And fortunately for John McCain, if he does select a “non-conventional” conservative, the national media can be counted on to ignore the true meaning of the selection in favor of the most obvious and inconsequential storyline imaginable: “Look, John McCain selected a VP with a vagina! How progressive!” or “Can you believe it? John McCain selected a brown-skinned man to be his VP!” God bless the national media, reliably predictable if nothing else. In essence, John McCain could score points with conservatives while the national media parrot the idea that he’s still a “maverick.”

On to the candidates:

Sarah Palin: Current Governor of Alaska, former two term mayor of Wasilla, Alaska.

Upside: A young, attractive female Governor who has had abnormally high approval ratings during her tenure as Governor. She is VERY popular. Her approval ratings have been as high as the 90s and consistently in the 80s, making her the most popular major politician in the United States. And it almost goes without saying that with approval numbers that high she is nearly as popular among Democrats as she is among Republicans.

Where did she come from? Well, in January 2004, she resigned in protest as head of the Alaska Oil and Gas Conservation Commission due to ethical violations by another commissioner, Randy Ruedrich, who was ALSO REPUBLICAN STATE CHAIRMAN. She became a political outcast by taking a stand on the issue of government corruption. But lo and behold. she was vindicated later in 2004 when Ruedrich was forced to pay a $12,000 fine for breaking state ethics laws. She instantly became a principled crusader against corruption in the eyes of the public and a thorn in the side of Republican leaders.

But she wasn’t done yet. In 2005, she joined a Democrat in filing an ethic complaint against state Attorney General Gregg Renkes who was also a long-time campaign manager for Republican Governor Frank Murkowski. Renkes resigned a few weeks later, and Palin was again lauded as a caped crusader.

During the 2006 Republican primary for Governor, she crushed incumbent Governor Murkowski and then defeated the Democratic nominee by 8 points. Now I’m not an Alaskan and I don’t even know an Alaskan so I can’t speak for them personally, but I would hazard that the reason she enjoys such universal approval across the political spectrum is that she is seen as a politician who actually takes stands based on her beliefs, even if they are not politically expedient (hello, Senator Obama?). You may disagree with her on policy issues, but you’re going to respect anyone who radiates such personal integrity, who actually puts their money where their mouth is. Senator McCain has placed his personal sacrifice for his country as among the preeminent reasons that he more qualified than Barack Obama to be President. Who better to reinforce that image than a woman who was willing to sacrifice her political career in order to fight government corruption? Palin, who is pro-life, also just brought to term her 5^th child who has Down Syndrome.

A few other nuggets: she was a high school basketball star that took her team to the Alaska State Championship; she was second runner-up in the Miss Alaska beauty contest; she is a lifetime NRA member and her oldest son joined the Army last year.

Upside/Downside: I’m not sure whether to characterize this observation as an upside or a downside, but the fact of the matter is that Sarah Palin is hot. A former beauty queen, she has graduated to a kind of sexy, smart, Tina Fey/Naughty Librarian level of sultriness; prim and proper during the day, but a tiger in the bedroom at night. Now we all know that John McCain enjoys the company of younger women, particularly beauty queens. Voters may very well project lecherous thoughts into McCain’s head during every joint appearance.

Downside: Being Mayor of Wasilla, Alaska, population 5,000, and then serving a couple of years as Governor of Alaska do not necessarily meet most voter’s threshold for “qualifications necessary for being a heartbeat away from the most powerful and monumental job on the face of the planet.” Qualified to hunt moose from a snowmobile, perhaps.

And where does Palin stand on the pressing foreign policy issues facing this country? Like Iraq, Iran, and Texas? If McCain’s Vice-Presidential vetters are doing their jobs, they’ll be identifying exactly what she knows, what she understands, and what she believes in terms of foreign policy and national security matters. Palin’s a blank slate for most voters, they’re unlikely to give her the benefit of the doubt if she’s unable to talk the talk on these matters. And furthermore, are her views in line with John McCain’s? If there’s one thing that can be gathered from her brief political resume, it’s that she’s unlikely to be cajoled and pressured into taking positions that she disagrees with fundamentally. A politician with scruples. Unseemly, I know.

Odds: 5:1

Mitt Romney: Former Governor of Massachusetts, Republican Presidential candidate

Upside: Romney was CEO of Bain & Company and co-founder of Bain Capitol, a private equity investment firm, so he is believed to be a solid choice among voters who are concerned about the state of our economy (which is pretty much everyone except oil executives). He was also credited with “saving” the 2002 Salt Lake City Winter Olympics and is seen as someone who could help McCain raise large sums of money from the business community and Mormons (at the very least he’s loaded, so perhaps he could make another large donation to the campaign as he did during his own candidacy for President). Considered “telegenic” and “having a Presidential head of hair,” his largest value probably comes from his support in the swing state of Michigan where his father previously served as a popular Governor.

Downside: John McCain doesn’t like him, on a personal level. Now in my book, anyone who feels a visceral dislike for Mitt Romney meets a key qualification to be Commander-in-Chief. I lived in Massachusetts for the Romney years and I can tell you — without a hint of uncertainty — that Romney is a do-nothing, I’m-only-holding-this-job-as-a-springboard-to-something-better, corporate stooge. There’s a simple reason that despite having every opportunity to grab the Republican nomination he was rejected as a slick phony by Republican voters who naturally gravitate to slick phonies: even snake-oil salesman turn their noses up at this guy. Romney as VP would be the kiss of death for McCain’s campaign, count on it.

Mitt Romney’s former company, Bain Partners, also just bought my beloved Dunkin’ Donuts and decided to ruin a Massachusetts institution by utilizing inferior coffee beans in order to increase their precious profit margins. If John McCain selects Mitt Romney I will personally drop ALL criticism of Barack Obama and make it my purpose in life to see him defeat John McCain. Mitt Romney can suck it.

Odds: 6:1

Bobby Jindal: Governor of Louisiana.

Upside: The youngest Governor in the land, Jindal also served two terms in Congress and received a 98% approval rating from the American Conservative Union.  Born a Hindu, he converted to Catholicism and could help with Catholic voters in a number of key swing states. He is the first Indian-American Governor in America’s history and would be the first Asian-American on a national ticket. The historical nature of his selection would be good for an incredible amount of press coverage that could help undercut the meme that McCain’s candidacy is stale and backwards-looking while Obama’s is exciting and progressive.

Downside: At 37 years of age, Jindal could very well be McCain’s grandson. (who knows, perhaps Jindal is the infamous black baby that McCain fathered?) Jindal wouldn’t put the issue of McCain’s age to rest, he would only serve to exacerbate the issue.

Put frankly, Jindal is religious wingnut. Despite graduating as a biology major from Brown University, he refused to veto a stealth creationist bill passed by the Louisiana legislature. It’s clear from his statements on the matter that he supports the teaching of “Intelligent Design” (read: “creationism”) in our public schools. Jindal should know better. He also just recently came under fire for approving a pay raise for the Louisiana legislature. Only after being threatened by the prospect of a recall did he decide to veto the bill.

But the real coup de grace for Jindal’s VP prospects is his belief in exorcisms. You can’t make this stuff up. In a 1994 essay he wrote for the right-wing Catholic journal, New Oxford Review, Jindal details how he participated in an exorcism with some college friends. Apparently, after freeing his friend Susan of those noxious demons, her skin cancer was also cured. I can just envision the writers of Letterman, Leno, the Daily Show et al, only going to sleep after giving a sincere prayer that McCain chooses Jindal as his VP. The comic possibilities are endless.

Now I’m not saying that Jindal doesn’t have a future in national politics as there’s a high likelihood that somewhere down the line America will embrace yet another whackjob like the one we have in office – maybe even as soon as 4 or 8 years from now. But at the moment, I think we’d all like a breather from religious whackjobs (Barack Obama notwithstanding. Sorry, couldn’t resist).

Odds: 8:1

Tim Pawlenty: Two-term Governor of Minnesota.

Upside: The young, handsome Governor of a nominally blue state who was one of the earliest supporters of John McCain, serving as his national co-chair since 2007. He has an immigration plan that is to the right of John McCain’s plan, which might play better with conservatives. He’s personable and friendly and a big hockey fan who practices with the Minnesota Wild – he even used to have a hockey player mullet, which he recently trimmed. He’s generally liked by social and economic conservatives.

Downside: A rather conventional choice who lacks national recognition, and with the Republican National Convention being hosted in Minneapolis this year, it seems crazy to choose a VP from the same state. There’s no point putting all your eggs in one basket. McCain is likely to receive diminishing returns on having a Minnesota Vice-President in addition to a Minnesota Republican Convention. Why not spread the love? It looks like Obama is going to win Minnesota anyway.

He also has the audacity to believe in global warming and is pro-prescription drug importation from Canada, both breaks from Republican orthodoxy.

Odds: 10:1

Mike Huckabee: Former Governor of Arkansas, runner-up to McCain for the Republican Presidential nomination.

Upside: Huckabee has acquitted himself well since his concession. He gave an amusing, self-deprecating performance on Saturday Night Life and has managed to keep his foot out of his mouth during his role as a commentator on Fox News. And there’s no denying that Huckabee continues to have a sizable band of hardy supporters, particularly among social conservatives and the religious right. Considering that John McCain is having trouble with Evangelicals, Huckabee might be necessary to keep the Republican religious base from jumping ship.

Downside: He lacks appeal to moderates and there’s nothing particularly “maverick” about selecting the Republican Primary runner-up as your VP. His economic policies are considered laughable and he doesn’t believe in evolution. But the biggest problem with Huckabee is that the press have already written their “Hucka-Boom!” stories. What else will they have to say about the man that they haven’t written already? He’s a two or three day story, at most. McCain needs more mileage out of his VP than that.

Odds: 12:1

Charlie Crist: First term Governor of Florida.

Upside: A good conservative, he is pro-life, pro-guns, pro-capital punishment, and strong on crime. He also signed executive orders that imposed stricter air-pollution standards in Florida so he has some “green” cred, which I hear is cool.

Downside: He doesn’t have much appeal outside of Florida, which is looking increasingly like a safe state for McCain anyway. The big issue is that he’s single, which gives certain people all kinds of ideas about his personal life (read: Homo!).  I can just see the Obama camp salivating at the prospect of having a surrogate say to an interviewer, “How can we trust this guy, he’s not even married. Who knows what’s going on behind closed doors,” a statement which Obama would then condemn quickly as “inartfully worded.” Don’t you just love the “new politics”? The long and short of it is that even if McCain considers Crist the most qualified candidate, he should avoid him like the plague.

Odds: 20:1

**UPDATE** Since I wrote this entry about Charlie Crist, he just announced last Thursday that after 30 years of being single he is now engaged to his girlfriend of 9 months, Carole Rome. Coincidence or not, I have decided to improve Charlie’s odds from 30:1 to 20:1. I would still hold that his mere 2 years in office and his white-haired, white guy status would not make him a good fit for McCain’s #2.

Eric Cantor: Four term Congressman from Virginia.

Upside: As the lone Republican Jew in Congress, Cantor is strongly Pro-Israel and could potentially appeal to Jews in key swing states, particularly to Jews in Philadelphia and Cleveland. He has a strong and reliable conservative record and as Chief Deputy Whip for House Republicans, he is one of the party’s highest ranking leaders despite being only 45. He’s also Chairman of the House Terrorism and Unconventional Warfare Taskforce so he should be able to speak soundly on national security matters.

He represents the key swing state of Virginia that McCain absolutely must win to have a chance at the Presidency and he’s known as a top fundraiser.

Downside: Most voters don’t think all too highly of Congressional representatives (and for good reason) and Cantor is far from a household name. While he would probably meet the approval of the conservative base and might help sway voters in Virginia and other Southern states, it’s unlikely that his selection would “light a fire” under the conservative base, something which McCain’s campaign desperately needs.

Odds: 25:1

Rob Portman: Six term representative from Ohio, Director of the Office and Budget for George Bush from 2006 to 2007.

Upside: As the economy hits the shitter, his economic background might provide good balance to the admittedly “economically-challenged” John McCain. He was also a reliable conservative as a legislator so he should appeal to the conservative base.

Downside: In case you haven’t noticed, the Obama campaign is going to great lengths to tie John McCain to George W. Bush. Hardly a minute goes by that some Obama surrogate doesn’t refer to McCain as “George Bush III” or “John McSame.” They’re doing that for a good reason: George Bush is not popular; being associated with George Bush is bad. Therefore, it might not be such a hot idea to choose a VP who is friends with George Bush and actually served in his Cabinet.

Odds: 30:1

Joe Lieberman: Independent Senator from Connecticut, on the 2000 Democratic ticket as Al Gore’s VP.

Upside: A good friend of John McCain’s and a staunch supporter of the war in Iraq. Might – emphasis on might – have some appeal to Independents and moderate Democrats.

Downside: Lieberman is persona non grata among most Democrats so he’s not going to have much crossover appeal. Democrats feel he’s a turncoat and Republicans won’t accept him as a true believer. He’s more valuable to McCain as a supporter than a VP. Plus, who can honestly take seriously a politician who started out as Democrat, and then became an Independent, and is now going to transform yet again into a Republican? Please. At 66, he’s also almost as old as McCain.

Odds: 50:1

The Field:

Lindsey Graham: Senator from South Carolina, early supporter and friend of John McCain, could help unite conservative base in the South. But seriously, can you look at this goober and actually consider him as a Vice-President?

John Thune: Self-described Christian Conservative Senator from South Dakota who deposed Democratic Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle in 2006, young, supports a Constitutional amendment banning gay marriage, but basically a snooze.

Carly Fiorina: Former CEO of Hewlett Packard and a McCain advisor, received a huge  $20 million dollar severance package when she left HP in 2005 so would likely be tied to all the recent examples of corporate greed and corruption.

Mark Sanford: Governor of South Carolina, known for having an independent streak. During his time in Congress, would be one of two members, along with Ron Paul, that would vote against certain bills that otherwise received unanimous support – this is not a good thing to be siding with Ron Paul, unless you’re one of those Ron Paul fanatics.

Odds: 25:1

 

Conclusions:

Best Pick:  Sarah Palin. Her youth and inexperience on foreign policy matters are handicaps, but her appeal to conservatives and the novelty/boldness of her selection would guarantee McCain plenty of good press. The former high school basketball star, beauty queen, and principled crusader against government malfeasance is the type of story that would have reporters crying tears of joy. Whether you agree with her on the issues or not, it would be very difficult for Democrats to besmirch her integrity as a corrupt, hypocritical Republican (not that the Huffington Post or Daily Kos are known for their integrity. I’d put the over/under on two days before they’d start attacking her for giving birth to her child with Down Syndrome. Perhaps they might advocate for the old Spartan practice of leaving “defective” babies on the slope of a mountain to die. There’s a real, palpable sickness on the far left in this country. They are allowing their arrogance and anger to subjugate their sense of decency. If there’s anything they should have learned from the past 7 years, it’s that there are consequences for that kind of behavior. A reckoning, if you will. It is sad and unfortunate that they lack the self-awareness to see that.)

Runner-Up: Eric Cantor. I flip-flopped back and forth on this decision (uh-oh, there goes my political career), but I finally went with Palin over Cantor even though Cantor represents a vital swing state. Cantor would still be a fine selection for McCain, but I think his status as a white male marks him as too conventional for this election [note: as a Jew, I do NOT self-identify as a white male. Judaism is unique among major religions in that it is a religion AND an ethnicity. However, rest assured our national media will characterize Cantor as a white guy). Cantor also lacks the image of being a reformer.

Likely Pick: Sarah Palin. I have a feeling that John McCain has a fairly thorough understanding of the situation he faces: a bad economy, rising gas prices, voters who are angry and fed-up with our government leaders, and a charismatic opponent that has a pliant national media eating out of  his hands. A year ago McCain’s Presidential campaign was all but buried and he decided – whether through principle or not (not that it matters) – to make the highly unpopular decision to back the troop surge in Iraq. And here he is. He needs to hitch his ride to another long-shot and hope that lightning strikes. What does he have to lose? Without a doubt, this is his last Presidential election. If he plays it safe with a Mitt Romney or Mike Huckabee, he’s road kill. Sometimes being the significant underdog is a blessing in disguise. McCain needs to make a pick that shows daring and boldness, that shakes up people’s perception of him, that wakes up his conservative base, that reminds the voting public that he is not George Bush III. I can’t think of anyone better than Sarah Palin to accomplish that. John McCain needs to roll the dice one more time. With the number of disaffected Clinton voters who don’t plan on voting for Obama actually GROWING in number, selecting Palin for VP might just be the tipping point that leads to a mass exodus of Clinton supporters away from Obama. Like I said, what does McCain have to lose?